Amid prolonged uncertainty, continued policy support will be crucial for sustained economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. "In this period of prolonged uncertainty, it would be wise to remain agile and respond in a gradual, calibrated and well telegraphed manner to the emerging challenges," opined Das, according to the minutes of the MPC meeting released by the Reserve Bank on Thursday. Observing that economic recovery from the pandemic remains incomplete and uneven, he said, "continued support from various policies remains crucial for a sustained recovery." The governor said the renewed surge in international crude oil prices, however, requires close monitoring.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) board on Wednesday allowed foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to trade in exchange-traded commodity derivatives. The move, it said, "will enhance liquidity and market depth, as well as promote efficient price discovery." Overseas investors will only be allowed to deal in non-agricultural commodity derivatives and only cash-settled contracts.
Given the various risks to growth, one could argue for rate cuts to be deeper than the 5 per cent terminal repo rate that we are projecting at this stage, says Kaushik Das.
RBI kas hiked short-term lending (repo) rate by 0.25 per cent to 7.5 per cent.
Pranjal Kamra, CEO, Finology Ventures, lists seven efficient ways to cope with the rise in EMIs even as you balance your monthly budgets.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the fears of firming inflation may also refrain the MPC from tinkering with the interest rate in its bi-monthly monetary policy outcome to be announced on Friday. The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April.
The bank said that it has retained interest rate on savings bank deposit at 3 per cent for customers with balances above Rs 100,000. Customers with SB balance up to Rs 100,000 will continue to get the rate of interest at 3.50 per cent despite cut in the repo rate by the RBI earlier this month.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
Mutual funds focused on investing in fixed-income securities witnessed a heavy outflow of Rs 92,248 crore in June on uncertain macro environment, driven by expectations around an increasing rate cycle, higher commodity prices and slowdown in growth. This comes following a net outflow of Rs 32,722 crore in May and an inflow of Rs 54,756 crore in April, data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Out of the 16 fixed-income or debt fund categories, 14 witnessed net outflows during the month under review.
The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are not a consideration when it comes to monetary policymaking, said Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das to underscore the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. "It's not possible for me to comment what we do in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), but one thing I can tell and I would like to make it very clear-that the fact of elections coming up in 2024 is not a factor at all so far as monetary policymaking is concerned. "Monetary policymaking is for checking (and) controlling inflation," Das said at the Business Standard, BFSI Insight Summit.
The stock markets, which had opened in the green on rate cut hopes, tumbled after the monetary policy announcement.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points from 7.75 per cent to 7.5 per cent with immediate effect.
The government is set to ask PSBs to expeditiously introduce repo-rate linked products "to step up affordable credit".
It's not necessary to use only external benchmarks, there are multiple avenues to meet the requirement that the RBI wants, the bank said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
The Sensex jumped 412.23 points on Friday, braving heavy volatility during the day, amid the Reserve Bank of India maintaining status quo on the benchmark lending rate and buying in index heavyweights Reliance Industries Limited and ITC. The BSE Sensex climbed 412.23 points or 0.70 per cent to settle at 59,447.18. During the day, the benchmark hit a high of 59,654.44 and a low 58,876.36. The Nifty also gained 144.80 points or 0.82 per cent to finish at 17,784.35.
'Marginal rates will definitely affect the consumer's decision in entering a new transaction, but in reality, they don't affect much because banks/financial institutions have come up with step-up EMIs: 50% of home loans which exceed 15 years in India are prepaid, within 7-8 years.' 'This doesn't happen anywhere in the world.'
The bank will give 3.25 per cent interest on savings bank deposits with a balance exceeding Rs 100,000. At present, the interest rate is 3.5 per cent.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
"In view of the festival season and extending the benefits to customers across all segments, we have reduced our MCLR by 10 bps across all tenures," the bank said in a statement.
Financial markets are under stress and require steps by the central bank for market stability and revival of economic growth, he said while announcing the decisions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee in Mumbai.
The government has no plan to print currency notes to tide over the current economic crisis triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed Parliament on Monday. To a question on whether there is any plan to print currency to tide over the crisis, the finance minister said, "No Sir". Many economists and experts have suggested to the government to print more currency notes to tide over the difficult economic situation with a view to support the economy ravaged by the spread of COVID-19, and protect jobs.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1.4 per cent in November as most components like manufacturing, electricity, mining, primary goods, and consumer durables witnessed a slowdown, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This is on the base of a decline of 1.7 per cent in November 2020 and before the new Covid variant started impacting economic activity. IIP growth was lower than the 4 per cent expansion recorded in the previous month but was better than a 1.6 per cent contraction seen in November 2020. Separately, rising prices of kitchen staples pushed retail inflation, or rate of price increase, to 5.59 per cent in December 2021, bringing it close to the upper band of Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
Growth might be impacted by up to 0.30 per cent in the March quarter as normal economic activities come under pressure due to restrictions being imposed by more states to curb rising Omicron cases, economists at the country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank said on Tuesday. The economists said they were earlier estimating Q4 growth to come at 6.1 per cent, which can get impacted by 0.2-0.3 per cent because of the Omicron threat. "With states imposing Covid-related restrictions (night curfew on movement of people, restaurants allowed at 50 per cent capacity, offices to operate at 50 per cent capacity in various states), economic activity is likely to get impacted in Q4FY22," they said.
The government's total liabilities rose to Rs 128.41 lakh crore in December quarter from Rs 125.71 lakh crore in the three months ended September 2021, according to the latest public debt management report. The increase reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.15 per cent in October-December 2021-22. In absolute terms, the total liabilities, including liabilities under the 'Public Account' of the government, jumped to Rs 1,28,41,996 crore at the end of December 2021.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
These are the highlights of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's statement and resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC):
The balance sheet of the Reserve Bank plays a critical role in the functioning of the country's economy.
The new rates, effective Wednesday, is the third reduction by SBI in this financial year having cut the rates by 5 bps each in April and May, while its home loan rates has come down by 20 bps during this period.
"Such material cannot be treated as ample proof," a source in the Foreign Office was quoted as saying by The News daily.The statement of Iman alias Ajmal Kasab does not amount to admissible proof under "any penal code anywhere in the world, including India or Pakistan," it said.
'You have to be a total anti-national bozo to shut down the Nokia plant in Sriperumbudur, which was the first large manufacturing plant for mobile phones in India.' 'Why was the unit shut down? Because of somebody's ego.'
'Some people even boldly ask for a 100% increase in the salary.'
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
The fourth consecutive rate cut is expected to lower equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for home and auto buyers, and borrowing cost for corporate.
The retail inflation rate breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit of the RBI for the first time in seven months in January, while the wholesale price index stayed in double-digits for the 10th month in a row, showed two sets of data released by the government on Monday. Retail inflation, the key input for the RBI while reviewing the repo rate every two months, soared during the month mainly because of a spike in certain food items. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021.
Reversal in the declining economic growth trajectory is clearly the need of the hour and all steps should be taken to bring about this change.
Services sector activities improved further and touched a five-month high in April driven by a surge in incoming new work orders that boosted business activity and supported a renewed increase in employment, according to a survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 57.9 in April, from 53.6 in March, highlighting a sharp rate of expansion that was the fastest since last November amid mounting price pressures. For the ninth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Axis Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging over 13 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, TCS, Kotak Bank and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, Nestle India, HUL, Tech Mahindra and Sun Pharma ended in the red. NSE Nifty zoomed 273.95 points, or 3.03 per cent, to finish at 9,266.75.
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